Service Plays Monday 11/22/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 437-438: Denver at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 124.342; San Diego 138.062
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs (-4, 196)

Looks like that whole Tony Parker-Eva Longoria divorce isn’t affecting the Spurs. San Antonio is 3-0 straight up and against the spread since the news of the split surfaced last week.

The Spurs have won 10 straight, covered in five consecutive games and appear to be getting better with every game.

Offseason pickup Tiago Splitter came into the season hurt and didn’t play much early on. That’s why San Antonio backers were pumped to see the rookie big man register 18 points in limited minutes against the Cavs.

“It’s a great run for us,” Tim Duncan told the San Antonio Express-News. “There’s going to be ups and downs, but I think this team is building on what we did last year.”

Splitter’s breakout couldn’t have come at a better time. San Antonio will need strong play from him and their other backup big men against Dwight Howard and the Magic.

Pick: Spurs


New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (+6, 196.5)

Blake Griffin is creating a lot of buzz for Los Angeles’ other NBA basketball team, but the Clippers continue to lose and lose big.

Coach Vinny Del Negro is trying to shake things up and end the club’s nine-game winless streak (4-5 ATS). He’s taking away a large portion of rookie point guard Eric Bledsoe’s minutes and given them to veteran Randy Foye.

Because of injuries, Del Negro has been giving more playing time than he’d like to first-year players.

"I give those guys a lot of credit," Del Negro told the Los Angeles Times about his rookies. "They are working. They're trying. They're preparing. It's just that you can't speed the process. It just takes time.

"[With] some guys, it happens quicker. They're getting valuable experience right now, and like I said, hopefully we can get our key guys back and get a rotation finally down and use the guys we have. You are having two, three rookies starting and that's difficult at this level."

New Orleans is rolling right now and will have no trouble with the Paper Clips.

Pick: Hornets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators (-110, 5.5)

The Ottawa Senators are trying to shake a three-game losing streak as they prepare for a busy stretch in the schedule.

Ottawa plays five games over the next eight days and needs to figure out what’s going on with the club’s defense and goaltending in a hurry. The Sens have allowed 17 goals over the last three games after they had been on a rolling winning five of six.

Brian Elliott started all three games of their skid, but was yanked after giving up four goals on 16 shots against the Carolina Hurricanes. Pascal Leclaire wasn't much better when he came on and gave up three more on 12 shots in a 7-1 blowout loss. Elliot was back in goal for Friday’s 5-2 loss to the St. Louis Blues.

“We’ve been in this situation before,” captain Daniel Alfredsson told reporters Friday. “We’ve gone stretches where we played really well and we’ve gone stretches where we can’t get the gameplan we want at all. We’ve just got to go back, work and refocus. We’ve turned it around before.”

Doing that against a Kings team that is getting fantastic goaltending from Jonathan Quick might be a lot to ask. The Kings are 8-1-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Senators.

Pick: Kings


Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils (+135, 6)

You almost have to feel bad for the New Jersey Devils in this spot. They’re going up against a Capitals club that will be fired up after losing two straight games and they won’t even have Martin Brodeur in goal up against the scariest offense in the league.

The Caps were embarrassed 5-0 by the Atlanta Thrashers on Friday and then dropped a 5-4 decision to the Flyers in a shootout on Saturday.

"I was a little worried after the first period when it was only 1-0, because we didn't get rewarded for battling," Caps coach Bruce Boudreau said of Saturday’s game after Washington had a lead at the first intermission. "Three two-on-ones, two breakaways, and those are the kind of times you put teams away. If you don't and let them hang around, something usually negative happens."

After a day off, expect the Capitals to make the most of their chances against a New Jersey defense that ranks 24th in the league in goals against. The Devils had dropped three straight and are expected to start Johan Hedberg in goal again as Brodeur is out with an elbow injury.

Pick: Capitals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pucking the trends: Weekly NHL betting trends

Every week we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

HOT TEAM: Pittsburgh Penguins

Sidney Crosby couldn't help but crack a smile. He had just buried the Carolina Hurricanes in overtime on Friday night in a shootout, and in the postgame interview room, even the modest of stars, on one of the modest of elite teams, had to sit back and enjoy a heckuva run that included this 5-4 victory.

"It's been really good around here these days," he said. "Everyone's playing well. Everyone's playing together, and that's just what we need as we hit the road."

The Penguins, who open a two-game road swing Monday night in Florida, have shed the early-season rust they so uncharacteristically displayed in October, and have replaced it with a little November polish.

Pittsburgh, which went just 3-5-1 in its first nine games at the brand new Consol Energy Center, won four of five headed into that tilt vs. the Panthers, and has at least one point in all of those five contests.

"After the way we started," Crosby said, "we need points."

They're well on their way. But before you start cashing in on Pittsburgh, keep in mind the price. The Penguins are hot, and are loaded with talent on the front and back lines. Because of that, you're always going to pay a high price at the window, thanks to public perception.

On top of that, monitor their schedule. The date with the Panthers begins an eight-day stretch in which the Pens play five times, including two games in two days to close this week: vs. Ottawa Friday, and vs. Calgary Saturday.

COLD TEAM: Calgary Flames

Speaking of Calgary, November has been a struggle for a team that underwent major offseason changes, and is in desperate need of making the playoffs. The Flames have five losses this month, and on Sunday night, this team, which still hasn't found the right chemistry, begins a six-game stretch that will span just nine days. That's a lot of hockey in a little time frame for a team that is struggling, folks. And, oh yeah, it opens vs. the Red Wings.

But maybe, just maybe, they turned a corner on Friday night. You have to be careful to judge on one game – and we won’t – but a 7-2 win over the Stanley Cup-champion Blackhawks might be the right elixir. It might just be the ignition switch.

Before that breakout game, it was an all too familiar tug-of-war with this team. When the Flames had the offense going, they couldn’t stop pucks. And when they couldn’t score, they gave up just enough to lose. It's been a frustrating cycle for coach Brent Sutter. The Flames have been held under two goals three times in November, and Friday’s effort was the first time they topped four goals all month.

OVER PLAY: Philadelphia Flyers

Loyal readers remember that we called for the red-hot Flyers to cool off just a tad this week, and Philadelphia responded with two losses in a span of 72 hours, to Montreal and Tampa Bay.

But that doesn't mean this high-flying offense has slowed down much. Quite the contrary, in fact. For that matter, maybe we should forget wins and losses, when the best bet involving the Broad Street Bullies these days seems to be on the over.

In a six-game span ending at Washington on Saturday night, the Flyers topped five goals -- for and against – in five of them. Keep in mind, five goals is the magic number in hockey total plays. And if you find a team that is topping five with that kind of percentage, jump on them early and often as an "over" buy.

UNDER PLAY: Anaheim Ducks

Give Anaheim credit for shedding a disappointing early-season slump, much like Pittsburgh did. There's far too much talent on this team to not be in the playoff hunt, and now, they are where they belong … to a certain degree. But that doesn't mean they are scoring goals with ferocity. Not even close.

The Ducks, entering Sunday night's game vs. Edmonton, had seven games this month in which they hit five goals or less – for and against. And in three of those games, the number was three goals or less. Ouch.

There is still plenty offensive skill on this team to think it'll break out soon, perhaps for good. Remember, this team has Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf on it. And maybe the best of news of all for them is that after Sunday night they have four consecutive days off.

Surveying the schedule:

** Minnesota has a brief breather, playing one game -- vs. Philadelphia on Wednesday -- in a five-day span, but the Wild are going to need it. Beginning on Friday, they play three games in four nights. Expect some tired, tired legs -- and perhaps a "go against" play on Nov. 29 -- when that stretch ends vs. Calgary.

** Carolina is in the same boat as the Wild. The Hurricanes play on Wednesday vs. Washington, and it's their only contest in a five-day span. But then, it gets hard for Paul Maurice's club. Starting Friday, the Hurricanes play three games in four days -- at Boston, at Washington, and vs. Dallas. The game vs. the Stars on Nov. 29 bears watching. Carolina will fly home the night before, and after playing such a dynamic duo in the Capitals and Bruins, they may not have much left for Dallas. Consider a play on the Stars with a nice road-team price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' best friend: Monday's wagering tips

Lines to watch

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers – the total opened at 48 points and now sits at 50, while the pointspread remains steady favoring San Diego by 9.5 points.

Who’s hot

Oklahoma City Thunder have won and covered in each of their last four games.

San Antonio Spurs have won 10 straight and have covered the number in each of their last five.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have won three in a row.

Montreal Canadiens have won five of their last six.

Who’s not

Atlanta Hawks are 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 home games.

The Miami Heat have dropped seven of their last eight games against the number.

Denver Nuggets have lost four straight against the number.

New Jersey Devils have lost five of their last six games.

Key stat

120 – Kyle Orton’s quarterback rating on play-action passes this season. He has thrown four touchdowns and one interception out of the play-action despite Denver’s terrible rushing offense. The Broncos sit last in the league averaging only 76.8 running yards per game.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Antonio Gates (foot), San Diego Chargers – Chargers supports have heard this before – Gates is questionable for Monday’s game against the Denver Broncos after sitting out practice all week. He is the team’s most lethal receiving threat but has been slowed by injuries for more than a month now, but has played every time he has had a questionable status. Wideout Legedu Naanee is doubtful, though Malcom Floyd is now expected to play, giving Philip Rivers at least one relatively healthy receiving option.

Game of the day

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 50)

Notable quotable

“He is the best deep-ball thrower that we are going to play or that I have studied. He has an uncanny ability to ignore everything that is going on right around him in the pocket and he maintains all of his focus down the field. So, every time you make a mistake, it doesn’t matter how close you are to him in the pass rush, if you make one small mistake in the secondary in coverage he always sees it and once he sees it he has a quick release.” – Broncos coach Josh McDaniels on Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.

Notes and tips

Phoenix Suns point guard Steve Nash sat out Saturday’s game at Charlotte with a groin strain and the coaching staff is “leaning to holding him out” of Monday’s date against Houston. Backup Goran Dragic will fill in at the point but expect Jared Dudley to handle the ball a lot too.

Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby left Sunday’s practice early with an apparent injury. There’s no word on the severity of the injury as of yet as the Penguins get set to visit the Florida Panthers on Monday. Crosby has 14 goals and 33 points this season and is coming off a four-point performance in Pittsburgh’s last game.

Denver Broncos tackle Jamal Williams plays his first game against his former team, the San Diego Chargers on Monday night. Williams anchored San Diego’s line for 12 seasons before he was released and signed with the Broncos in the offseason. The Broncos will count on the 34-year-old nose tackle to take San Diego’s terrible running game out of the equation on Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HRC PREMIUM NFL ACTION-November 21st-22nd

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
******************


[437] Denver |5*|Bet A|OPEN +10.5|B+1/2|ESPN|8:35 pm EST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HONDO

REGULAR PLAY
Denver Broncos

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The world famous
gary olshan’s nfl releases

denver (+11)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NFL

Monday, November 22, 2010
SAN DIEGO 33, Denver 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL WRITE-UP

NFL Week 11 Games

Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (4-5)—Bolts won six of last eight series games, but lost 34-23 at home to Denver LY, as Broncos raced out to 6-0 record—they’re 5-14 since then. In their last three games, wildly erratic Broncos have led 35-0 in 2nd quarter and trailed 35-0 in 2nd. Overall, they’ve lost four of last five games, are 2-5 as an underdog, with road losses by 7-14-8 points. Denver is 0-6 if they score less than 26 points. Chargers scored 33-29 points in winning last two games before their bye- they’re 3-1 as home favorite, with wins by 25-31-8 points (lost at home to NE). With Chiefs losing last two games, AFC West race is wide open. Average total in last four series games is 60.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-10)
Why Broncos cover: Antonio Gates is dealing with a foot injury and is questionable to suit up on Monday. Running back Ryan Mathews is also in danger of missing this game with an injured ankle.

Why Chargers cover: The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Receivers Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd are both expected to return from their hamstring injuries.

Total (50.5): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and the top two passers in the league will face off.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sixth Sense

3% DENVER +10

SAN DIEGO -10 Denver 50.5

SAN DIEGO 31 DENVER 30

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

5* San Diego

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Double dragon

chargers -10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Prediction Machine

Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS
438 8:30 PM @ SD DEN -10 12.2 58.7

 

[dettim]

MNF...11/22/2010

DENVER +10.0

OVER THE TTL 50

GLGuys,

det tim

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22
*SAN DIEGO 30 - Denver 27

Chargers have been mostly dominant at home TY, going 3-1 SU and vs. the spread, with the victories all by eight points or more, regardless of the receiver situation. Kudos to Philip Rivers (65%, 19 TDs, 8 ints.), who deserves mention for MVP considering S.D.’s myriad injuries. Rivers has shown little drop-off despite throwing to the likes of WRs Patrick Crayton & Seyi Ajirotutu and TE Randy McMichael in recent games. So, why are the Chargers only 4-5 despite being No. 1 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense? Because they’re “No. 33" in special teams, that’s why, having yielded four STs TDs, not to mention four blocked punts. With Denver RB Knowshon Moreno (102 YR) much more lively last week, fat pointspread on this one could be too many. S.D. “over” 9 of last 13 at home; Broncos “over” 12-2 last 14.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE'S PLAYBOOK

SAN DIEGO over Denver by 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NELLY'S GREEN SHEET

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2010
SAN DIEGO (-9 1⁄2) Denver (48) 7:35 PM
In a desperate spot off the bye week the Broncos played a near perfect game last week to crush the Chiefs. Kyle Orton continues to put up huge numbers but San Diego is one of the best defensive teams in the league statistically. San Diego was off last week and after a slow start the Chargers appear to be coming around again. San Diego has mainly dominated its home games while Denver is 1-3 on the road this season. With a banged up receiving corps the bye week should help San Diego more ht an most teams and Denver is unlikely to repeat last week’s effort.

CHARGERS BY 13